هذا الموضوع هوعن سلسلة أحداث السوق المالية، بدءاً من يوليو2007، التي أنذرت بوجود ضعف في الاقتصادات العالمية. للقراءة في القضايا الاقتصادية، خلف الأزمة المالية 2008-2009، التي تتعدى السوق المالية، طالع الأزمة الإقتصادية 2008-2009. وللتفاصيل عن انهيار أسواق الأوراق المالية وإنقاذ البنوك في أواخر 2008، طالع الأزمة المالية العالمية 2008.

الإنهيار المالي 2007 - 2008, بصفة عامة في بريطانيا يشار إليه بمصطلح سحق الإقتصاد ، وفي الولايات المتحدة يعهد بأزمة الإقتصاد, بدأ يعهد فيتسعة أغسطس 2007, عندما بدأ المستمثرون يفقدون الثقة في قيمة الأسهم العقارية فنتج عن ذلك أزمة في السيولة والتي دفعت إلى حقن ضخم لرؤوس الأموال إلى الأسواق المالية عن طريق نظام الإحتياط الفدرالي والبنك المركزي الاوربي.

خلفية تاريخية

عند البحث عن أصل أزمة السيولة ، نجد أنها نتيجة عن أزمة سوق الرهن العقاري. وقد كان بنك نورذرن روك هوأول ضحايا تلك الأزمة. أدت عدم قدرة البنك على إقراض أموال إضافية , وكذلك القدرة على سداد إلتزاماته, إلى bank run في منتصف سبتمبر 2007.

طبيعة البنك المسيطرة على أعماله, الغير مدعمة بسيولة نقدية جديدة, أدت إلى ظهور الكثير من المشاكل التي عانى منك قبل غيره من المصارف والمؤسسات المالية.

Excessive lending under loosened underwriting standards, which was a hallmark of the United States housing bubble, resulted in a very large number of subprime mortgages. These high risk loans had been perceived to be mitigated by securitization. Rather than mitigating the risk, however, this strategy appears to have had the effect of broadcasting and amplifying it in a domino effect. The damage from these failing securitization schemes eventually cut across a large swath of the housing market and the housing business and led to the subprime mortgage crisis. The accelerating rate of foreclosure caused an ever greater number of homes to be dumped onto the market. This glut of homes decreased the value of other surrounding homes which themselves became subject to foreclosure or abandonment. The resulting spiral underlay a developing financial crisis.

Initially the companies affected were those directly involved in home construction and mortgage lending such as Northern Rock and Countrywide Financial. Financial institutions which had engaged in the securitization of mortgages such as بير ستيرنز then fell prey. On July 11, 2008, the largest mortgage lender in the US collapsed. إندي ماك Bank's assets were seized by federal regulators after the mortgage lender succumbed to the pressures of tighter credit, tumbling home prices and rising foreclosures. That day the financial markets plunged as investors tried to gauge whether the government would attempt to save mortgage lenders فاني ماي and فردي ماك. The crisis further accelerated in late summer following the placement of فاني ماي وفردي ماك into federal conservatorship on September 7, 2008.

It then began to affect the general availability of credit to non-housing related businesses and to larger financial institutions not directly connected with mortgage lending. At the heart of many of these institution's portfolios were investments whose assets had been derived from bundled home mortgages. Exposure to these mortgage-backed securities, or to the credit derivatives used to insure them against failure, threatened an increasing number of firms such as Lehman Brothers, AIG, Merrill Lynch, and HBOS. Other firms that came under pressure included Washington Mutual, the largest savings and loan in the United States, and the remaining large investment firms, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.

إجراءت نظام الإحتياط الفدرالي لخفض أسعار الفائدة وحفز الإقتصاد

لمزيد من التفاصيل انظر رسم بياني لمعدل التخفيض للحكومة الفيدرالية الأمريكية: [1]

أسبوع 14 سبتمبر, 2008

الأزمات المالية للشركات الكبرى

يوم الأحد, 14 سبتمبر , أعرب حتى شركة ليمان براذرز في سبيلها إلى الإفلاس بعد إمتناع بنك الاحتياط الفيدرالي عن تقديم التسهيل الإئتماني لها. في اليوم نفسه,تم الإعلان عن بيع ميرل لينش إلى بنك أمريكا. وعهد بداية الأسبوع بأنه أسبوع عدم الإستقرار الشديد لسوق الأوراق المالية, مع إنخفاض شديد في قيم السوق يوم الإثنين, 15 سبتمبر , ويوم الأربعاء 17 سبتمبر. وفي 16 سبتمبر, عانت المؤمـّن الكبير, المجموعة الدولية الأمريكية, والمشاركة الكبيرة في أسواق مبادلة الإئتمان, من مشاكل في السيولة عقب إنخفاض معدلاتها الإئتمانية. وتحت طلب المجموعة الدولية الأمريكية وتقديمها ما يثبت أنه لا يمكن العثور على مقرضين لإنقاذها من حالة التعسر المالي التي تمر بها, قدم نظام الإحتياط الفدرالي تسهيلات إئتمانية تصل لأكثر من 85 بليون دولار أمريكي في لقاء 97% لصالح رأس المال, وكذلك الحق في تعليق الأسهم المشهجرة المصدرة مسبقا والأوراق المالية المفضلة.

التأمين على صناديق سوق المال; حظر المبيعات قصيرة المدى

On September 16, the Reserve Primary Fund, a large money market mutual fund, lowered its share price below $1 because of exposure to Lehman debt securities. This resulted in demands from investors to return their funds as the financial crisis mounted. By the morning of September 18, money market sell orders from institutional investors totalled $0.5 trillion, out of a total market capitalization of $4 trillion, but a $105 billion liquidity injection from the Federal Reserve averted an immediate collapse. On September 19 the U.S. Treasury offered temporary insurance (akin to FDIC insurance of bank accounts) to money market funds. Toward the end of the week, short selling of financial stocks was suspended by the Financial Services Authority in the United Kingdom and by the Securities and Exchange Commission in the United States. Similar measures were taken by authorities in other countries. Some restoration of market confidence occurred with the publicity surrounding efforts of the Treasury and the Securities Exchange Commission

برنامج إغاثة الأصول المتعثرة

On September 19, 2008, a plan intended to ameliorate the difficulties caused by the subprime mortgage crisis was proposed by the Secreatry of the Treasury, Henry Paulson. He proposed a Troubled Asset Relief Program (later incorporated into the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008) which would permit for the United States government to purchase illiquid assets (also termed toxic assets) from financial institutions. The value of the securities is extremely difficult to determine.

Consultations of between the Secretary of the Treasury, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, and the Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Congressional leaders and the رئيس الولايات المتحدة moved forward plans to advance a comprehensive solution to the problems created by illiquid mortgage-backed securities. At the close of the week the Secretary of the Treasury and President Bush announced a proposal for the federal government to buy up to US$700 billion of illiquid mortgage backed securities with the intent to increase the liquidity of the secondary mortgage markets and reduce potential losses encountered by financial institutions owning the securities. The draft proposal of the plan was received favorably by investors in the stock market. Details of the bailout remained to be acted upon by Congress.

أسبوع 21 سبتمبر, 2008

يوم الأحد 21 سبتمبر, تحول إثنان من البنوك الإستثمارية الباقية, گولدمان ساكس ومورجان ستانلي , بموافقة نظام الإحتياط الفدرالي إلى شركات صرافة قابضة, كحالة منظمة أكثر, ولكن مع إستعداد أكبر للوصول لرأس المال. في 21 سبتمبر, أعرب سكرتير وزارة الخزانة الأمريكية هنري بولسون حتى الإقتراح الأصلي , والذي يستبعد البنوك الأجنبية,قد إتسع ليضم المؤسسات البنكية التي توجد في الولايات المتحدة. وكانت الإدارة الأمريكية تضغط على الدول الأخرى لوضع خطط إصلاح مشابهة. في يومي الإثنين والثلاثاء خلال أسبوع 22 سبتمبر, ظهرت الرؤية عن طريق وزير الخزانة ورئيس مجلس إدارة نظام الإحتياط الفدرالي قبل إجتماع الكونجرس وفي يوم الأربعاء كان إلقاء الحدثة من رئيس الولايات المتحدة على شاشات التلفزيون.

On Monday and Tuesday during the week of September 22, appearances were made by by the Secretary of the Treasury and the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve before Congressional committees and on Wednesday a prime time presidential address was delivered by the President of the United States on television. Behind the scenes, negotiations were held refining the proposal which had grown to 42 pages from its original ثلاثة and was reported to include both an oversight structure and limitations on executive salaries, with other provisions under consideration. On September 25, agreement was reported by congressional leaders on the basics of the package; however, general and vocal opposition to the proposal was voiced by the public. On Thursday afternoon at a White House meeting attended by congressional leaders and the presidential candidates, John McCain and Barack Obama, it became clear that there was no congressional consensus, with Republican representatives and the ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee, Richard C. Shelby, strongly opposing the proposal. The alternative advanced by conservative House Republicans was to create a system of mortgage insurance funded by fees on those holding mortgages; as the working week ended, negotiations continued on the plan, which had grown to 102 pages and included mortgage insurance as an option. On Thursday evening Washington Mutual, the nation's largest savings and loan, was seized by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and most of its assets transferred to JPMorgan Chase.Wachovia, one of the largest US banks, was reported to be in negotiations with Citigroup and other financial institutions.

أسبوع 28 سبتمبر, 2008

Early into Sunday morning an announcement was made by the Secretary of the Treasury and congressional leaders that agreement had been reached on all major issues: the total amount of $700 billion remained with provision for the option of creating a scheme of mortgage insurance. It was reported on Sunday, September 28, that a rescue plan had been crafted for the British mortgage lender Bradford & Bingley.Grupo Santander, the largest bank in Spain, is slated to take over the offices and savings accounts while the mortgage and loans business will be nationalized.Fortis, a huge Benelux banking and finance company was partially nationalized on September 28, 2008, with Belgium, هولندا and Luxembourg investing a total of 11.2 billion euros (16.3 billion U.S. dollars) in the bank. Belgium will purchase 49% of Fortis's Belgian division, with the Netherlands doing the same for the Dutch division. Luxembourg has agreed to a loan convertible into a 49% share of Fortis's Luxembourg division. It was reported on Monday morning, September 29, that Wachovia, the 4th largest bank in the United States, would be acquired by Citigroup. Other European rescues reported Monday were of Hypo Real Estate, a holding company based in Munich which comprises a number of real estate financing banks and of Glitnir, Iceland’s third largest lender . Stocks fell dramatically Monday in Europe and the US despite infusion of funds into the market for short term credit.

The bailout plan, now named the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 and expanded to 110 pages was slated for consideration in the House of Representatives on Monday, September 29 as HR 3997 and in the Senate later in the week. The plan failed after the vote being held open for 40 minutes in the House of Representatives, 205 for the plan, 228 against. Meanwhile US stock markets suffered steep declines, the Dow losing 300 points in a matter of minutes, ending down 777.68, the Nasdaq losing 199.61, falling below the 2000 point mark, and the S.&P. 500 off 8.77% for the day. By the end of the day, the Dow suffered the largest drop in the history of the index. The S&P 500 Banking Index fell 14% on September 29 with drops in the stock value of a number of US banks generally considered sound, including Bank of New York Mellon, State Street and Northern Trust; three Ohio banks, National City, Fifth Third, and KeyBank were down dramatically. On Tuesday, September 30, stocks rebounded but credit markets remained tight with the London Interbank Offered Rate (overnight dollar Libor) rising 4.7% to 6.88%. On Tuesday, September 30,تسعة billion was made available by the French, Belgian and Luxembourg governments to the French-Belgian bank Dexia. After Irish banks came under pressure on Monday, September 29, the Irish government undertook a two year "guarantee arrangement to safeguard all deposits (retail, commercial, institutional and inter-bank), covered bonds, senior debt and dated subordinated debt (lower tier II)" ofستة Irish banks: Allied Irish Banks, Bank of Ireland, Anglo Irish Bank, Irish Life and Permanent, Irish Nationwide and the EBS Building Society; the potential liability involved is about 400 billion dollars. The Senate's version of the $700 billion bailout plan, HR1424, modified to expand bank deposit guarantees to $250,000 and to include $100 billion in tax breaks for businesses and alternative energy, passed with bi-partisan support 74-25 on October 1st. Reaction in the House was mixed, but in a vote on Friday the House of Representatives passed the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008, as refashioned by the Senate, 263-171 in a bipartisan vote.

Discussions are ongoing in Europe regarding possible remedies for financial instability in Europe leading up to a conference Saturday afternoon in Paris hosted by Nicolas Sarkozy, president of France. UniCredit of Italy was reported to be the latest bank to come under pressure. During the night of October 2 Greece followed Ireland's lead and guaranteed all bank deposits. On October ثلاثة it was reported that Wachovia had rejected the previous offer from Citigroup in favor of acquisition by Wells Fargo. In Britain, the Financial Services Authority announced on October ثلاثة that effective Tuesday, October 7, the amount of the guarantee of bank deposits would be raised to £50,000 from £35,000. On Friday, October 3, the government of the Netherlands took over the Dutch operations of Fortis, replacing the bailout plan of September 28.

التنبؤات

ولقد تنبأ البعض بإستمرار أزمة السيولة, وبأنها من الممكن حتى يحدث إمتداد للركود أويحدث ما أسوأ.

التسلسل الزمني للأحداث

خلفية

• أزمة الرهن العقاري

أحداث 2007

• برزت أزمة السيولة فيتسعة أغسطس, 2007

أحداث 2008

• January 2008 stock market volatility
• Bear Stearns
• Federal takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
• أزمة السيولة 2008
• American International Group
• Merrill Lynch
• ليمان براذر
• الأزمة الإقتصادية 2008
• Washington Mutual, sold by FDIC to JPMorgan Chase
• Wachovia's banking assests (of $700B) sold to Citigroup for $2.2B
• U.S. legislative proposals are made to provide economic rescue
• Hypo Real Estate

إنعكاسات الأزمة المالية الأمريكية عالميا

الإنعكاسات على روسيا

خسرت أسواق المال الروسية أكثر من 200 مليار دولار منذ 15-18 سبتمبر 2008 ، ويجمع الخبراء على حتى الهبوط الحاد يعود إلى انعكاسات أزمة الاقتصاد الأمريكي وإفلاس مؤسسات مالية كبيرة ويؤكدون على متانة أسس الشركات الروسية.

كما أعربت وزارة المالية الروسية أنها تعتزم ضخ أكثر من 45 مليار دولار في القطاع المصرفي الروسي للحد من تأثيرات الأزمة الحالية.

ورغم الانخفاض الكبير في مؤشرات البورصات الروسية في الأسابيع الأخيرة، وفقدانها منذ بداية الأسبوع الحالي أكثر من 20% إلا حتى فريقا واسعا من الخبراء يرفضون مقارنة الوضع الحالي ب أزمة أغسطس عام 1998 ويلفتون إلى متانة أسس الاقتصاد الروسي.

ويعرب الخبراء عن ثقتهم في حتى تضافر جهود البنك المركزي الروسي والحكومة سيؤدي إلى تجاوز الأزمة الحالية لاسيما وأن روسيا تملك أدوات ووسائل كثيرة للحد من انهيار البورصات، ليس آخرها ضخ السيولة اللازمة في النظام المالي الروسي.

انظر أيضا

• Mark-to-market accounting
• التأمين على الودائع

وصلات خارجية وقراءات إضافية

• "Congress decides it is worth risking depression Commentary by Martin Wolf in The Financial Times Published: September 30 2008 19:22 | Last updated: September 30 2008 19:22
• "Bailout Plan Is Only One Step on a Long Road" news analysis by Steve Lohr in The New York Times September 28, 2008
• Text and summary of the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008
• "Wall Street, R.I.P.: The End of an Era, Even at Goldman" article by Julie Creswell and Ben White in The New York Times September 27, 2008
• "Five Days That Transformed Wall Street". The Washington Post.
• Ben S. Bernanke (September 23, 2008). "Text of the testimony prepared for delivery before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs". The New York Times.
• Henry M. Paulson, Jr. (September 23, 2008). "Text of the testimony prepared for delivery before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs". The New York Times.
• Nocera, Joe (2008-10-01). "36 Hours of Alarm and Action as Crisis Spiraled". New York Times. Retrieved 2008-10-02. Unknown parameter |coauthors= ignored (|author= suggested) (help) (Background on development of the Treasury proposal to Congress)
• "The Day the S.E.C. Changed the Game" Report by Stephen Labaton Produced by Amy O'Leary in The New York Times: September 28 2008

المصادر

The initial articles and some subsequent material were adapted from the Wikinfo article "Financial crisis of 2007-2008" http://www.wikinfo.org/index.php?title=Financial_crisis_of_2007-2008 released under the GNU Free Documentation License Version 1.2