جون زغبي (و. 1948) ، هوسياسي ومستطلع رأي أمريكي وأول زميل في معهد دورة الحياة التابع للجامعة الكاثوليكية الأمريكية. هومؤسس ورئيس والرئيس التطبيقي لشركة زغبي العالمية، المشهورة باستطلاعات الرأي الهاتفية والتفاعلية، واستطلاعات الرأي على الانترنت.

بيبليوگرافيا

السنوات المبكرة

نشأ زغبي في اوتيكا، نيويورك، ابنا لمهاجرين لبنانيين كاثوليك. أخوه جون زغبي، مؤسسالمعهد العربي الأمريكي، وهوأيضا موظف في زغبي العالمية.

حصل زغبي على درجة البكالوريوس في التاريخ من كلية لوموين عام 1970 وشهادة الدكتوراه في التاريخ من Syracuse University عام 1973. قام بتدريس التاريخ والعلوم السياسية لمدة 24 عام. تلقى زغبي من أمانة كلية لوموين جائزة الخريجين في يونيو, 2000. في 2005، تم مُنح شهادة الدكتوراه الفخرية من جامعة ولاية نيويورك و the Graduate School of Union University.

المهنة

An interpreter of the political scene, Zogby had a brief stint as an aspiring politician himself in 1981, when he ran unsuccessfully for Mayor of Utica, New York. He describes himself as a Democrat, while his polling firm is "independent and nonpartisan."

زغبي العالمية

\Zogby founded the polling firm Zogby International in 1984. Since then, he has conducted polls and focus groups around the world, though he has gained the most publicity for his polls of United States Presidential elections.

He first gained attention in the 1992 presidential election when he released a survey showing the New York State Governor Mario Cuomo would lose in his home state to incumbent President George H. W. Bush. That poll is widely thought to have pushed Cuomo from the race. Later, he gained more national attention in the 1996 Presidential election when his final poll came within a tenth of a point of the actual result. Zogby also correctly polled the cliffhanger result of the 2000 presidential election won narrowly by George W. Bush, in contrast to most other pollsters who had expected Bush to win easily.

In 2004, while his actual polling was correct, his Election Day prediction failed to materialize. Before polls had even closed in the 2004 presidential election, Zogby predicted a comfortable win for John Kerry (311 electoral votes, versus 213 for Bush, with 14 too close to call), saying, "Bush had this election lost a long time ago," adding that voters wanted a change and would vote for "any candidate who was not Bush." While admitting that he was mistaken, Zogby did not admit any possible flaws in his polling methods, insisting that his predictions were all within the margin of error. While on The Daily Show With Jon Stewart, he said he felt that Kerry would win due to the undecided voters. Despite his personal prediction, Zogby's final poll showed Bush with a one point lead over Kerry. Zogby later released a "Mea culpa" in which he stated "I will do better next time: I will just poll, not predict."

In 2006, Zogby phone polling correctly called allعشرة competitive United States Senate races and nailed the exact margin in the three closest races. His interactive online polling correctly called the winner of 17 of 18 races, but was far off in the margin of victory of some races.

Prior to the January, 2008 New Hampshire Democratic primary, Zogby, like virtually all other pollsters, showed in his polling a large (13 points, in Zogby's case) lead for Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton, adding, "Obama is still on a roll and not slowing down. He had another big day." Clinton went on to win by three percentage points. Zogby's polling results in the Iowa Caucuses, and the South Carolina, and Florida primaries, however, were far closer, and he was one of only a few pollsters to correctly call Obama's Iowa win. However, his final poll in California showed Obama winning by 13%, but the actual results showed Hillary winning by 10%, a 23-point difference far beyond the margin of error.

Zogby has penned a comprehensive review of the process of polling the volatile 2008 Democratic Party nomination race between Obama and Clinton.

Zogby has been known as an industry innovator, making it standard practice to weight his political polls using party indentification, which was not a common practice when he began to do so. Today, it is widely accepted as a best practice for the industry. Zogby himself credits this as one key reason his political polling has been so accurate over the years.

Another key reason for the Zogby success stems from his decision to maintain an in-house call center using live operators in Upstate New York. But, with the dramatic changes in the telephone industry in recent years, Zogby in 1998 began developing an interactive online polling methodology using a massive database of respondents that closely represents the national population at large.

Zogby has also had success with elections in countries outside the United States. He correctly called the 2001 Israeli election for Ariel Sharon, the 2000 Mexican election for Vicente Fox and again in Mexico with the victory of Felipe Calderón in 2006. Also, Zogby has made a sideline of polling Arab attitudes toward the United States, particularly in regard to Lebanon.

نشاطات أخرى

يخط زغبي عمود في التحليل السياسية بصفة منظمة، لمجلة الانتخابات والحملات السياسية. منذ مايو2005، أصبح مدون مساهم في The Huffington Post.

Zogby previously hosted a weekly show called "Zogby's Real America," which debuted on XM Satellite Radio's POTUS 08 Channel 130 in September 2007. Daily radio vignettes were heard on POTUS 08, where Zogby's Real America co-host Fritz Wenzel also provided commentary and analysis on fresh Zogby polling data though the Presidential election in November 2008.

Zogby is also a Senior Advisor at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and serves as the first Senior Fellow of the The Catholic University of America's Life Cycle Institute in Washington, D.C. He is also a member of the board of directors of the prestigious Advertising Research Foundation], based in New York City.

He also serves on the Advisory Council for Bio-Technology for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and is a Commissioner on the Center for Strategic and International Studies Commission on Smart Power.

In 2006, he was honoured as a "Living Legend of Oneida County" (NY) for his community service work and his founding of a groundbreaking worldwide company.

He is the author of The Way We'll Be, published by Random House in August 2008; it is an optimistic portrait of the new American consumer based on his polls.

John is weighing in on President Barack Obama's job performance and popularity on the new "Obamameter" featured on the revamped Washington Whispers home page from U.S. News and World Report. He also writes a weekly column for Forbes.com

الحياة الشخصية

زغبي لديه ثلاثة أبناء مع زوجته كاثلين، مدرسةتعليم خاص متقاعدة. يهتم زعبي بالجولف، كرة السلة ، وتدريبات كرة القدم.

بيبليوگرافيا

• Zogby, John (1990). Arab America Today: A Demographic Profile of Arab Americans (First edition ed.). Washington, D.C.: Arab American Institute. OCLC 24357334.CS1 maint: extra text (link)
• Zogby, John (2003). Public opinion and private accounts: measuring risk and confidence in rethinking social security (First edition ed.). Washington, D.C.: Cato Institute. OCLC 52641051.CS1 maint: extra text (link)
• Zogby, John (2006). Iran versus America? (First edition ed.). Utica, NY: Zogby International. OCLC 71340360.CS1 maint: extra text (link)
• Zogby, John (2008). The Way We'll Be: The Zogby Report on the Transformation of the American Dream (First edition ed.). New York: Random House. ISBN .CS1 maint: extra text (link)

المصادر

وصلات خارجية

• زغبي العالمية