هذه منطقة تفصيلية عن الأزمة المالية في أيرلندا وتأثيراتها. لسلسلة فضائح البنوك الأيرلندية، انظر أزمة البنوك الأيرلندية 2008–2010.

الأزمة المالية الأيرلندية 2008–2010' 2008–2010 Irish financial crisis، هي أزمة اقتصادية كبرى جارية في أيرلندا وهي مسئولية جزئية عن حالة الركود الذي مرت بالبلاد في فترة الثمانينيات. أعربت الحكومة الأيرلندية رسميا عن حالة الركود في سبتمبر 2008، مع حدوث ازدياد حاد في معدل البطالة في الأشهر التالية. كانت أيرلندا أول دولة في منطقة اليوروتدخل في حالة الركود حسب مخط الاحصائيات المركزي.

في يناير 2009 ارتفع عدد الأشخاص المطالبين باعانات البطالة إلى 326,000، ويعد هذا أعلى معدل شهري منذ بدء الاحتفاظ بالسجلات في 1967. في سياق الأزمة، والتي تزامنت مع سلسلة فضائح البنوك، هبط الحزب الحكام فيانا فال إلى المركز الثالث حسب استطلاعات الرأي التي أجرتها إيريش تايمز. واتى الحزب وراء فاين گيل والعمل، الذي اتى ترتيبه قبل فيانا لأول مرة.

ودفعت للضغوط الاقتصادية إلى خروج 120,000 متظاهر في شوارع دبلن في 21 فبراير 2009، وسط مزيد من التهديدات بالتظاهرات والإضرابات. The Dublin's ISEQ index had reached 10,000 points briefly in April 2007. But on 24 February 2009, it fell over 3% to stand at 1,987 points, a 14-year low. The last time it stood under the 2,000 level was the middle of 1995. This occurrence followed the unexpected resignation of former Anglo Irish Bank director Anne Heraty from the board of the Irish Stock Exchange the night before.

الخلفية والأسباب

The Irish economy expanded rapidly during the Celtic Tiger years (1995–2007) due to low ECB interest rates among other causes. This led to an expansion of credit and included a property bubble which began to end in 2007. Irish banks, already over-exposed to the Irish property market, came under severe pressure in September 2008 due to the global financial crisis of 2007–2010.

التأثير

Government finances began to show signs of trouble in mid-2008. Government deficits increased, many businesses closed and unemployment increased. The Irish Stock index (ISEQ) fell. Many immigrant workers left, and the financial regulator resigned.

البنك الأنگلوأيرلندي

Anglo Irish Bank was particularly exposed to the Irish property bubble. A hidden loans controversy in December 2008 led to a further drop in its share price.

النمووالبطالة

The Irish economy entered severe recession in 2008. Ireland officially left recession in the first quarter of 2010.

Ireland entered into an economic depression in 2009. The Economic and Social Research Institute predicted an economic contraction of 14% by 2010. In the first quarter in 2009, GDP was down 8.5% from the same quarter the previous year, and GNP down 12%. Unemployment is up 8.75% to 11.4%. The economy exited recession in the third quarter of 2009, with GDP growing by 0.3% in the quarter, but GNP continued to contract, by 1.4%.

سوق العقارات

Due to the ending of the bubble, the residential and commercial property markets went into a severe slump with both sales and property values collapsing.

Developers such as Liam Carroll began to fall behind on their loan repayments. Due to the financial crisis, banks such as ACC pushed for their revenue recovery and requested liquidation of the development firms.

الهجرة

According to some sources, about 65,000 people left Ireland in 2009, and some estimate that the number may be more like 120,000 in 2010. At first, most of those leaving were immigrants returning home to Central Europe. But in time, the Irish themselves started heading out. The number of people signing up for unemployment benefits dropped about 3% in October 2010, prompting the government to announce this as a sign of an improving economy. But opposition parties quickly disputed that claim, attributing this change to the increased rate of emigration.

مسئوليات الحكومة

الميزانية الحكومية الطارئة يوليو2008

Ireland officially declared it was in a recession in September 2008. Prior to this declaration, the Irish government announced, on ثلاثة September 2008, that it was to bring forward the 2009 government budget from its usual December date to 14 October 2008. In a statement, the government claimed that this was largely due to a decrease in the global economy. The budget, labelled "the toughest in many years", included a number of controversial measures such as a proposed income levy which was eventually restructured, and the withdrawal of previously promised HPV vaccines for schoolgirls. Other results of the budget included a new income levy being imposed on all workers above a specified threshold and the closure of a number of military barracks near the border with Northern Ireland.

An unexpected public outcry was invoked over the proposed withdrawal of medical cards and the threatened return of university fees. A series of demonstrations ensued amongst teachers and farmers, whilst on 22 October 2008, at least 25,000 pensioners and students descended in solidarity on government buildings at Leinster House, Kildare Street, Dublin. Some of the pensioners were even seen to cheer on the students as the protests passed each other on the streets of Dublin. Slogans such as "no cutbacks, no fees, no Fianna Fáil TDs" and "education is a right not a privilege" have since become commonplace in student protests against the government organised by the Union of Students in Ireland (USI) and the newly formed Free Education for Everyone (FEE), as have puns on the then Minister for Education and Science Batt O'Keeffe. Changes to education led to a ministerial meeting with three Church of Ireland bishops who were assured by O'Keeffe that religious instruction would be unaffected by the budget changes.

Rebellion within the ranks of the ruling coalition government led to a number of defections of disenchanted coalition members. County Wicklow TD, Joe Behan resigned from the Fianna Fáil party in protests at the proposed medical card changes after suggesting that past taoisigh Éamon de Valera and Seán Lemass "would be turning in their graves at the decisions made in the past week".Independent Deputy Finian McGrath then threatened to withdraw his support for the government unless the plan to remove the overs 70s automatic right to a medical card was withdrawn completely.Taoiseach Brian Cowen postponed a planned trip to الصين, sending Minister for Education and Science Batt O'Keeffe ahead to lead the delegation. Behan, alongside McGrath and former government minister Jim McDaid, later voted against his former colleagues in two crucial Dáil votes on medical cards and cancer vaccines. These defections reduced the Irish government's majority of twelve by one quarter.

A supplementary budget was delivered in April 2009 to address a fiscal shortfall of over €4.5 billion.

الاضرابات والاضطرابات الصناعية (2009)

اعتصام عمال واترفورد كريستال

Onخمسة January 2009, Waterford Wedgwood entered receivership. On 30 January, workers at the Waterford Crystal plant in Kilbarry were told they would be losing their jobs. A statement issued by the receiver, Deloitte's David Carson, confirmed that, of the 670 employees, 480 of them would be laid off. The workers responded angrily to this unexpected decision and at least 100 of them began an unofficial sit-in in the visitors' gallery at the factory that night. They insisted they would refuse to leave until they had met with Carson. Following the revelations, there was a minor scuffle during which the main door to the visitors' centre was damaged. Local Sinn Féin Councillor Joe Kelly was amongst those who occupied the visitors' gallery. A meeting held the following day did little to resolve the conflict, with the sit-in continuing for almost two months until 22 March.

تقييمات موافقة الحكومة

The ruling Fianna Fáil party fell to third place in a national opinion poll published in The Irish Times on 13 February 2009. The party placed behind Fine Gael and Labour, the latter of which rose above Fianna Fáil for the first time in history. A further opinion poll, published in the Irish Independent on 27 February, indicated that only 10% of voters were satisfied with the Government's performance, that over 50% would like an immediate general election and confirms the sudden collapse in support for Fianna Fáil.

المظاهرات العامة

On 18 February 2009, 13,000 civil servants voted for industrial action over a proposed pension levy. They effected this action on 26 February.

Days earlier, as many as 120,000 people, had protested on the streets of Dublin on 21 February. This was followed by a further march through the capital by gardaí on 25 February and a lunch-time protest by 10,000 civil servants on 19 March 2009. This was followed by two separate taxi drivers' protests in Dublin on 20 March 2009.

Labour leader Eamon Gilmore has stated his belief that a national strike would serve the country no good. The strike was later called off.^[]

دعم النظام المصرفي

Increase in individual deposit account guarantee to €100,000 (in summer 2008?)

Credit Institutions (Financial Support) Act 2008 - emergency Government guarantee for six banks in October 2008.

Nationalisation of Anglo Irish bank in Jan 2009. Anglo Irish Bank Corporation Bill 2009.

Recapitalisation of other banks in Feb 2009.

الوكالة الوطنية لادارة الأصول

In April 2009, the government proposed a National Asset Management Agency (NAMA) to take over large loans from the banks, enabling them to return to normal liquidity to assist in the economic recovery.

زيادة الديون

The costs of the bank rescues,^[] NAMA and a large public sector borrowing requirement to fund current and capital spending has led by late 2010 to a per capita external debt of over $535,000. This represents some 1,305% of Ireland's annual GDP, making it the second-most indebted country in the world, after Luxembourg.

صفقة الإنقاذ

On the evening of 21 November 2010, the Taoiseach Brian Cowen confirmed that Ireland had formally requested financial support from the European Union's European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a request which was welcomed by the European Central Bank and EU finance ministers. The request was approved in principle by the finance ministers of the eurozone countries in a telephone conference call. Details of the financial arrangement were not immediately agreed upon, and remained to be determined in the following weeks, though the bailout was believed to be in the region of €100 billion (£85.4B), of which approximately €8 billion (£7B) was expected to be provided by the United Kingdom.

Following criticism of the action, the Green Party leader John Gormley signalled that his party would seek to have a General Election in January, with the implicit threat being that they would pull out of Government; with the addition of a number of Independent Government T.D.s declaring that they would not continue to support the Government and speculation mounting, Brian Cowen called a press conference in which he announced that the Government intended to introduce and pass that year's Budget, and its constituent parliamentary bills, before having a new-year election.

However, on 23 November, rebel members of Brian Cowen's ruling Fianna Fáil party and opposition leaders sought no-confidence vote for the Government and dissolution of the Oireachtas before a crucial budget vote onسبعة December 2010, that should open the way for adopting the rescue package.

المصادر